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CPO futures mart expected to hit new highs

Business Times

Monday - December 31, 2007

by W.Q. Mun

Positive investor sentiment and speculation could lift the Kuala Lumpur CPO futures market to a new high this week

OBSERVATIONS: The Kuala Lumpur CPO futures market bull stampeded through all overhead resistance barriers and surged to an all-time high last week.

The actively-traded March 2008 contract shot up to a new high of RM3,150 a tonne, up a whopping RM125 or 4.17 per cent over the week.

Today, the Kuala Lumpur CPO futures market looks set to end the year with a bang - and probably on a record high note too. That’s because the CPO futures bulls have got the bit between their teeth and there are plenty of positive factors and encouraging reasons why the bulls should continue chomping at the bit while partying into the new year.

For one thing, this market still has some way to go to play catch-up with the bellwether US soyabean oil futures market.

The US soyabean oil futures market January 2008 contract closed last week at 48.83 US cents a pound, up 67 per cent since the start of 1997. The CPO futures market, by contrast, closed last week with a comparatively laggard 57 per cent gain over the year.

Edible oil market analysts in general are agreed that soyabean oil is the leader in the world edible oil markets pack.

For another thing, crude oil, after having shot up from its early December low of around US$87 to above US$97 last week, is taking another shot at the US$100 (RM332) a barrel mark. World geopolitical tensions - the latest being Turkey’s bombing raids against the Kurds in oil-rich northern Iraq; and former Pakistan premier Benazir Bhutto’s assasination, among others - are keeping crude oil under a burner.

And if crude oil gushes past the century mark market players could take a new shine to palm oil because of the biofuel factor.

Conclusion: Positive investor sentiment and speculation could lift this market to a new high this week.
The RM3,170 immediate overhead resistance, basis the March 2008 contract, is the first speed bump this market faces its march up to a new high price plane.



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