Jun. 19, 2010
The Hindu Business Line
Gnanasekaar .T
Malaysian palm oil futures ended higher on Friday on increased optimism about the pace of global recovery. There was good support from external markets. Energy prices crossed $75 helped by optimism in global recovery after US stocks ended higher weathering volatility, posting back-to-back weekly gains. However, the sustainability of this enthusiasm is in doubt as a private body raised its forecast of 2010 US soya plantings to 78.8 million acres, up from 78.5 million in May and above USDA’s March 31 forecast of 78.1 million. Furthermore, a central bank adviser in China said growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2010 and double-digit growth for the full year is unlikely.
CPO futures fell lower as expected and then bounced. Though the big picture structures prompt more down side towards 2,255 thereabouts, presently some short-term strength is seen. Immediate support is at 2,385-90 Malaysian ringgit (MYR) a tonne for the September contract, while trend line resistance is at 2,425-30 MYR/tonne followed by 2455 MYR/tonne on the upside. A corrective up move looks likely to the above mentioned resistances, before the downtrend resumes. Only an unexpected rise above 2455 MYR/tonne could postpone the bearishness. Such a rise could even test 2470-75 MYR/tonne on the upside. A daily close below 2370 MYR/tonne level will hint at the resumption of the downtrend.
We believe the impulse that began from 1,427 MYR/tonne, which hit 4,486 MYR/tonne ended and a prolonged corrective move has possibly ended at 1,335 MYR/tonne. The fresh impulse move, which we have been anticipating towards 3,000 MYR/tonne is losing ground. This view gains momentum only on a close above 2,870 MYR/tonne. Fall below 2,345 MYR/tonne could cause doubts on this overall bullish view. RSI is in the neutral zone now, indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold. The averages in MACD are still below the zero line of the indicator indicating bearish to be intact. Only a cross-over above the zero line again could indicate bullishness again. Therefore, look for palm oil futures to test the resistance levels and then fall again.
Supports are at MYR 2,385, 2,345 and 2,310. Resistances are at MYR 2,425, 2,455 and 2,471.